Research, theses, exposures. Written from an active book.

BTC has another leg down before the next cycle high. The work is on entries, not exits.

The post-halving distribution phase is incomplete. Spot ETF flows have concentrated marginal demand in a thin set of RIA platforms and treasury vehicles. I read that as fragility, not strength. Funding and basis are rolling over from a regime that has historically preceded 40–60% drawdowns. Gold and short-duration cash fund the position into the move.

I'm not writing a price target for the next cycle high. Back above prior all-time-high and into price discovery is sufficient. The asymmetric work right now is on timing entries, not exits. That's where edge lives.

Perpetual futures infrastructure is the most undervalued primitive in crypto capital markets, and Hyperliquid is the asset that expresses it.

HyperCore plus HyperEVM compresses the distance between an idea for a derivative and a live on-chain market from months to hours. HIP-3 permissionless listing is the leg that matters; expansion is paramount and, in my read, likely. Hyperliquid is materially more than a crypto venue. The same rails support equity-style and other underlyings. The market hasn't priced that optionality.

The regulatory window has cracked open: CFTC RFI, SEC posture shifting, Coinbase self-certification of perps. The gap with TradFi exchanges closes asymmetrically in favor of native venues that already have the liquidity.

See: R-07 · Hyperliquid (HYPE): Infrastructure, Tokenomics, Valuation

Equities are on stilts. Now is the time to mitigate risk, not to add it.

The bid is being held up by a narrow leg: AI capex and the energy demand it drags behind it. Dealer positioning, single-stock gamma in the names doing the work, and breadth divergence underneath the index print are consistent with a late-cycle squeeze, not a healthy expansion.

A blow-off top is the path of least resistance. The correction will be sharp and violent when the macro setup turns. Iran, China, oil rolling over, a credit event, or AI capex slowing meaningfully are all live triggers. The posture I want is dry powder and asymmetric hedges, not max long.

Real rates compression resumes by mid-2027; precious metals lead, BTC follows with a lag.

Fiscal dominance constrains the policy response to the next growth scare. Gold's 2024–25 leg discounted that path; the next leg comes when real yields confirm. BTC's correlation to gold runs through liquidity, not safety. The lag compresses as crypto market structure matures.